A632.1.4.RB – Multistage Decision-Making
After
reading the Wharton’s text about multistage decision-making models and optimal
dynamic decision analysis, I started to reflect on my previous and present
decision-making methods and how I could improve them.
According
to the text, researches may solve multistage problems using mathematical
formulas to present the known and unknown factors within a problem, while
managers tend to rely on their intuition and past experiences to solve a
problem (Hoch & Kunreuther, 2005). I can attest that when making a
decision on how to solve a multistage problem, I too will rely on my past
experiences and my intuition in order to arrive at a solution to the problem. I
would normally try to gather as much known information as possible, then sort
the information on what I believe is important or relevant to the problem, then
finalize my expected outcome and move forward with making the decision. I
really do not like to devote too much time into just one problem. I rather
fixed as soon as possible the best way I can. I have never been a strong
mathematician, so solving problems utilizing mathematical formulas would not be
my first choice to decision-making. I believe these kinds of formulas are
useful in several instances; however, they are not my first alternative when
making a decision. Therefore, the use of mathematical formulas would not impact
my decision-making in any way.
Robert J.
Meyer and J. Wesley Hutchinson (2005) introduced the concept of forward
planning in our decision-making. We are prone to be temporally myopic and
often, severely so. Indeed, studies find that people generally can plan no
further than just one-step beyond the current decision (Hoch & Kunreuther,
2005). As I considered my own decision-making abilities, based on the
information available to me at the time of the problem, I may not be able to
predict a positive future outcome or what affect my decision may have in the
future. Sadly, my myopia has blinded me on many occasions, and the effects
of my decisions were unforgiving. And there have been other instances
when everything worked out just fine! Nevertheless, I continue to seek the
“mastering” of knowing when my decision will be right without affecting others.
I would
consider trying to apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict
future impact of today's decision by stepping back from a problem to broaden my
view of other options to solving the problem, ask for more experienced feedback
on how to solve the problem and check my own biases to ensure the feedback I received
is not blocking the solution to my problem. I consider that getting
feedback from others has made helped me in becoming a better optimal dynamic
decision-maker. Moreover, I believe that growth in this area is a continual
process that comes with trial and error over a lifetime.
Becoming
a great decision-maker is not an easy task, as I have discovered with
time. Some decisions seem easier to make than others. Sometime the
ramifications to making a bad decision can have ripple effects that can take years
to fix. No one is born with great decision-making skills; yet, learning
the techniques offered by the textbook, provide some answers and guidelines to
follow. I am committed to continue to pursue personal and professional
growth from decision-making and look forward to many years of great decisions.
References
Hoch, S. J., & Kunreuther,
H. C. (2005). Wharton on making decisions.
(1st edition). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
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